DCP support rises to 16pc as ODM, UDA lose ground in new TIFA poll

Support for former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Democratic Change Party (DCP) has risen sharply in a new TIFA survey, as the latest findings also show declining backing for both ODM and UDA and a shifting political mood ahead of the next election cycle.

The survey released on Thursday indicates that DCP support has climbed to 16 per cent in May 2026, up from six per cent in November 2025, placing it among the fastest-rising political parties in the country over the period under review.

At the same time, the poll shows a clear drop in support for the two major parties that dominated the 2022 General Election. ODM support has fallen from 32 per cent in August 2022 to 18 per cent in May 2026. However, the party shows a small recovery from 13 per cent recorded in September 2025.

On the other hand, UDA has also recorded a decline, dropping from 38 per cent in August 2022 to 17 per cent in May 2026, reflecting a steady loss of support over the four-year period.

The report suggests that the political field is becoming more competitive, with voters spreading their support across more parties and showing reduced loyalty to the main coalitions that shaped the last election.

According to TIFA, the results point to changing voter behaviour and a more uncertain political environment as the country moves closer to the next election period.

“The findings suggest a significant decline in support for both ODM and UDA compared to their August 2022 levels, highlighting possible voter fatigue, shifting political loyalties, and growing uncertainty within the political landscape,” the pollster said.

DCP’s growth trend has been consistent over the last eight months. The party rose from nine per cent in September 2025 to 16 per cent in May 2026, indicating steady gains in popularity among voters seeking alternatives to the established parties.

Other parties also recorded mixed performance in the same period. Jubilee Party rose from three per cent in September 2025 to 11 per cent in both November 2025 and May 2026.

Wiper Democratic Movement also improved its position, moving from four per cent in late 2025 to nine per cent in May 2026.

Despite the shifts, a large share of voters remains undecided. Those who said they had no party preference or were undecided stood at 23 per cent in May 2026, down from 43 per cent in September 2025, but still forming a key voting bloc that could influence future alliances and outcomes.

Smaller parties such as DAP-Kenya and Ford Kenya remained largely unchanged, each standing at about one per cent. The “Other” category moved between four and 10 per cent across the different survey periods.

TIFA said the study was based on a nationally representative sample and reflected current public opinion trends across the country.

“The results provide a credible snapshot of current public sentiment and emerging national trends,” it said.