A planned break from political appearances by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has introduced fresh uncertainty into the race for the Ol Kalou parliamentary seat, where his Democracy for Citizens Party is set for a direct contest with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance.
Gachagua has moved to his Wamunyoro home in Nyeri County for a 45-day retreat, keeping him away from rallies and public campaign activities, including the Ol Kalou by-election scheduled for July 16.
The constituency vote, now just 31 days away, is widely seen as a key early indicator of political strength in Mt Kenya as parties position themselves for the 2027 elections.
Speaking last week on Wednesday, Gachagua said he would stay out of political rallies during this period. “You will not see me anywhere in political rallies for the next 45 days,” he said.
After completing a three-day tour of Western on Sunday, he explained that the break was meant to allow him time for consultations with opinion leaders aimed at building agreement within the opposition on a single presidential candidate to face President Ruto.
The absence of Gachagua from the campaign trail has triggered mixed reactions among political analysts, with some saying it could weaken the momentum of DCP candidate Kamau Ngotho in Ol Kalou. Others argue the move may be a deliberate tactic to avoid direct political blame in case the party fails to win the seat.
At the same time, UDA has stepped up its campaign activities in the constituency, aiming to maintain its recent performance in by-elections. The party has also been linked to efforts to bring on board some aspirants who lost during the DCP nomination process.
The Ol Kalou race is shaping up as one of the most closely watched mini polls, not only because of the contest between the two parties, but also because of its political weight in the Mt Kenya region, where Gachagua has repeatedly positioned himself as a key voice.
A total of nine candidates have been cleared to vie for the seat, setting the stage for a competitive contest that both sides see as politically significant.
Last month, DCP suffered a setback after losing the Emurua Dikirr parliamentary by-election to UDA, a result that has added pressure on the party as it prepares for Ol Kalou.
The stakes in Ol Kalou go beyond parliamentary representation. A win for DCP would strengthen Gachagua’s claim of growing influence in the region, while a loss would likely be used by UDA to reinforce its argument that it still holds firm support in areas that backed Ruto in 2022.
Despite concerns raised over Gachagua’s absence, DCP leaders remain confident that the campaign is on course.
Nyandarua Senator John Methu is expected to lead the ground campaign, with allies insisting the former Deputy President can still be called upon if needed.
“If need be, we will call him for reinforcement. But as things stand now, we are confident of winning. The people in that constituency have made up their minds about the candidate they want to lead them,” said Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Gathiru.
He further claimed that UDA’s popularity in the area has weakened, alleging that residents are increasingly reluctant to openly associate with its campaign materials.
“He cannot even have a portrait of William Ruto on his campaign poster,” he said.
Gatanga MP Edward Muriu also downplayed concerns about the retreat, saying it is largely symbolic and does not prevent Gachagua from engaging politically if necessary.
“The 45 days retreat to Wamunyoro is symbolic in the sense that it will be dedicated to consultation, engagement and listening to the ground with the aim of yielding one presidential candidate for the alternative government,” said the MP.
“Though Gachagua will campaign in Ol Kalou, personally and through key supporters, the truth is that the campaign for the DCP candidate was done and dusted at the late David Kiaraho’s funeral before Ruto,” he added.
On the UDA side, former Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria has been active in the constituency as the ruling party pushes to secure another by-election win.
“I implored the electorate of Kadeto Karau to turn out in substantial numbers and vote Muchina,” said Kuria.
With both camps intensifying efforts on the ground, the Ol Kalou by-election is increasingly being viewed as a direct measure of political influence in Mt Kenya ahead of the next general election.