Chairperson of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers David Ndii has attributed milk shortages on supermarket shelves to rising consumer demand, pointing to increased consumption among workers at affordable housing and other construction sites.
Ndii argued that the country was not experiencing a decline in overall milk production, citing increased output and higher volumes of milk received by processors as evidence that demand was pressuring supplies available to consumers.
Speaking during the 2026 NCBA Economic Forum in Nairobi on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, Ndii said processor intake had increased by 34 per cent, raising questions about why some supermarkets were experiencing stock-outs.
“If there is no reduction in supply and there is actually a very sharp increase in both production and the intake by processors, what can explain the stock-outs on the shelf?. The only thing left to explain those stock-outs on the shelves is demand,” he said.
The economist said changing consumption patterns among lower-income groups could be contributing to the increased demand, particularly among workers who previously consumed smaller quantities of milk.
He pointed to construction sites, including those under the affordable housing programme, as examples of places where milk consumption had increased.
“If you go to any of our construction sites, where we are doing affordable housing, where there are a couple of hundred thousand people working every day, or any construction site, you will find crates of milk sitting there,” Ndii said.
He explained that milk was among the provisions supplied to workers at some construction sites, alongside other necessities.
“That's one of the things that construction provides to the workers on site, as well as other things,” he said.
Ndii argued that these changes in consumption were not always immediately reflected in broader economic discussions, despite their potential impact on demand for essential commodities.
He said the increase in milk consumption among workers illustrated how developments at the grassroots level could influence the wider market.
To support his argument, Ndii cited figures indicating that Kenya's annual milk production had increased by 20 per cent to approximately 5.6 billion litres since the current administration took office.
He also said the volume of milk received by processors had grown significantly, rising from approximately 500 million litres annually in 2022 to one billion litres last year.
According to Ndii, processor intake increased by 34%, while milk production also grew substantially.
He argued the increase was significant, saying the additional milk produced was greater than the annual production of most African countries.
“The increase is actually more milk than 90 per cent of the countries in Africa produce, just the increase,” he said.
The figures, he maintained, suggested that the reported stock-outs could not simply be attributed to a decline in national milk production.
Ndii's remarks come amid reports of milk shortages in supermarkets and retail outlets, with consumers experiencing difficulties accessing some packaged milk products.
However, the explanation for the shortages remains contested, with industry data also pointing to challenges in the supply chain.
Formal milk deliveries to processors declined from 88.89 million litres in May to 75 million litres in August 2026.
The Kenya Dairy Board attributed the decline largely to drought and pressure on animal feed, while the reduced deliveries raised concerns about the availability of milk entering formal processing channels.
Milk shortage has also affected prices in the country. Kenya National Bureau of Statistics figures cited in the October 19 report showed that fresh packaged milk prices increased by 6% in September, while ultra-high-temperature milk prices rose by 8%.