Tuju warns Kenya risks unrest over joblessness and elite opulence

Former Jubilee Secretary General Raphael Tuju has cautioned that Kenya could face deeper social tensions if it does not urgently deal with unemployment, widening inequality and what he terms as display of wealth among political leaders, warning that growing frustration among young people is being ignored at a dangerous cost.

Speaking on Radio Generation on Wednesday, Tuju said many young people without work and stable living conditions are easily drawn into violence and manipulation.

“I don’t know any young person who has got a job, has got shelter and is planning to set a family, who is a goon,” he said, adding that it is “children who don’t have opportunity and who don’t have jobs… who become goons we can buy to become crowds.”

He warned that the same group of frustrated youth is increasingly being used in political and social conflicts, saying lack of opportunity is at the centre of the problem.

Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 2025 Economic Survey shows that youth unemployment remains a major concern, with rates estimated at about 16.8% among those aged 20–24 and 11.1% for those aged 15–19. Overall figures place youth unemployment at about 11–12% among those actively looking for work.

Even so, the situation is wider when underemployment and those not in any form of work are included. Up to 67% of young people are either unemployed, underemployed or outside formal work, a reality driven by the dominance of the informal sector, which absorbs more than 80% of new jobs. Around 800,000 young people enter the job market every year, increasing pressure on already limited opportunities.

Tuju said the roots of today’s challenges go back to earlier policy decisions, especially during a period of rapid population growth in the 1980s.

“Back then, Kenya had the highest rate of population increase in the whole world… some areas… were having a rate of population increase of 6%,” he recalls, describing it as “unprecedented” without major migration or crisis.

He contrasted Kenya’s path with countries such as South Korea and China, saying they adopted firm policies on industrial growth and population management that helped stabilise their economies and create jobs.

Tuju further warned that failure to manage such pressures can lead to instability, pointing to examples such as Iran, Egypt and Tunisia where social and economic frustrations have contributed to unrest.

“Certainly, if a country does not deal with that, then they have radicalisation, and that’s what we are facing in the country right now,” he said.

He also raised concern over corruption and what he described as open display of wealth by leaders, saying it is worsening public anger and mistrust.

“People can deal with corruption… but if… they are corrupt, showing us choppers… you cannot win that kind of opulence,” he said, adding that such behaviour is “nonsense… madness… people are out of their minds.”

Tuju said the gap between leaders and ordinary citizens is widening, warning that inequality is fueling resentment that could spill into violence if not addressed.

He also pointed to growing intolerance among citizens, especially along political lines, saying it is damaging community relations.

“You go against your neighbour because of their political choice… and yet this person is doing what they think is right,” he noted.

He concluded that unless Kenya tackles unemployment, corruption and inequality in a serious way, the large youth population risks becoming a source of instability rather than national growth.