Kenya is heading into a cool weather season marked by uneven rainfall distribution across different regions, with the latest seasonal outlook showing that several agricultural zones are likely to receive near-average to below-average rains between June and August 2026, while the Coast is expected to record relatively wetter conditions during the same period.
According to the seasonal forecast released by the Kenya Meteorological Department, the June–July–August (JJA) period will be characterized by reduced rainfall activity in many parts of the country, consistent with the influence of southeast monsoon winds that typically suppress rainfall during this time.
Uneven rainfall across regions
The Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, and parts of Northwestern Kenya are expected to receive near-average to below-average rainfall, with occasional dry spells likely to be experienced within the season.
On the other hand, coastal counties including Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale are expected to benefit from near-average to above-average rainfall, offering relatively improved moisture conditions compared to other parts of the country.
The department noted that the season is not a major rainfall period for most areas, with large parts of the country expected to remain dry for extended periods.
"The South-eastern Lowlands and Northeastern Kenya are expected to be generally sunny and dry, while the Highlands East of the Rift Valley will experience light rainfall and fog," the department said in its outlook.
The forecast shows that counties expected to experience near-average to below-average rainfall include Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Narok.
Turkana and Samburu are expected to remain largely sunny and dry, although isolated areas may receive light showers.
Despite the cool season typically associated with June to August, temperatures are expected to remain warmer than average in most parts of the country.
Higher chances of above-normal temperatures are expected in the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, the Coast, Northwestern and Northeastern Kenya.
However, cooler and cloudy conditions, along with fog in some areas, are expected in the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, parts of the South-eastern Lowlands, the Rift Valley and Marsabit County.
Strong winds are also expected in several regions, with southerly, south-easterly and easterly winds likely to exceed 25 knots over parts of the Coast, South-eastern Lowlands, Northeastern and Northwestern Kenya.
The meteorological department linked these wind patterns to monsoon circulation systems, including the influence of the Somali Low-Level Jet and the Turkana Channel.
Expected impacts on key sectors
The outlook points to mixed effects across major sectors of the economy, depending on regional conditions.
In agriculture, the near-average to below-average rainfall expected in western Kenya and Rift Valley regions is likely to support crop development following the good long rains season experienced between March and May. Coastal farmers are expected to benefit from improved soil moisture due to higher rainfall.
However, the department warned that cool and cloudy weather could slow crop maturity, while strong winds in eastern Kenya may damage crops and increase moisture loss through evapotranspiration.
In the water sector, reduced rainfall in major catchment areas could lower river flows, reduce groundwater recharge and lead to declining reservoir levels. Water stress is also expected in the South-eastern Lowlands, Northeastern and Northwestern regions due to prolonged dry conditions.
The transport sector may also be affected, with strong winds expected to disrupt marine activities and damage infrastructure such as roofs and power lines. Fog in highland areas may also reduce visibility on roads and at airports.
Health experts have been advised to prepare for a possible rise in respiratory illnesses such as influenza and pneumonia in colder regions. Dust carried by strong winds in arid and semi-arid areas may also worsen respiratory and eye conditions.
In the energy sector, reduced rainfall in key catchment areas may lower inflows into hydropower dams, which could affect electricity generation. At the same time, strong winds could improve output from wind energy projects in affected regions.
The forecast follows an assessment of the March–April–May 2026 long rains season, which showed that most parts of the country received near-average to above-average rainfall, with temperatures remaining generally warmer than average across the country.