The findings released on May 14, 2026 by TIFA Research show that a majority of ODM supporters align with Linda Mwananchi, while a smaller but notable share back the rival Linda Ground position.
The survey was carried out between May 2 and May 11, 2026 and used a nationally representative sample of 2,013 respondents drawn from nine zones, including Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western. Data was collected through face-to-face household interviews conducted mainly in Swahili and English. The study carries a margin of error of +/- 2.18%, with slightly higher margins for sub-samples.
According to the findings, 73% of ODM supporters back Linda Mwananchi, while 24% support Linda Ground and 3% remain undecided. The results point to a clear split in opinion within the party base over leadership direction and political strategy.
The report notes, “ODM supporters appear to favour a more independent, people centred opposition approach rather than closer cooperation with the government.”
The survey describes two main ideological groupings within the party. The Linda Mwananchi movement is linked to leaders such as Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and other allied figures.
On the other side, the Linda Ground faction is associated with figures including ODM Party leader Oburu Odinga, ODM National Chairperson and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga and their supporters.
The findings suggest that many ODM supporters are increasingly drawn to leaders seen as prioritising public accountability, oversight of government action and a more independent opposition role.
Under Linda Mwananchi, which leads with 73% support, followers appear to favour a stronger opposition approach focused on public interest and consistent pressure on government performance.
In contrast, Linda Ground’s 24% support reflects a significant minority within ODM still backing a more structured and possibly cooperative political approach within the wider opposition framework.
The 3% who remain undecided show that a small section of supporters is yet to settle on either side of the internal debate.
The report also highlights that the internal differences reflect broader discussions within ODM over its long-term direction, especially on whether the party should remain fully independent in opposition or pursue closer political engagement with government-aligned structures.
It further points to long-standing leadership and succession tensions that have shaped internal dynamics within the party. These tensions have at times led to competing positions on party control, direction and influence.
Political observers say the divisions became more visible following internal reorganisation of party roles and competing claims over senior leadership legitimacy, which led to parallel mobilisation structures and rival meetings.
The study also links the current situation to historical patterns within ODM, where ideological and leadership contests have periodically created competing blocs ahead of major elections, including strategy and succession debates.
Researchers note that while Linda Mwananchi currently holds a clear lead among supporters, the presence of a sizeable minority backing Linda Ground shows that internal opinion remains diverse.
However, analysts caution that the findings reflect perceptions among supporters and do not represent official positions of the ODM Party.
The survey, funded by TIFA Research, ensured demographic balance across region, gender, age, education level and settlement type, offering a broad snapshot of opinion within the party base.
As political alignments continue to evolve ahead of 2027, the results point to both strong preferences and ongoing internal debates that are likely to shape ODM’s future political direction.