Communication strategist Odhiambo Otieno has warned that deepening divisions within ODM could lead to violent confrontation at its upcoming National Delegates Convention.
In a wide-ranging interview on Monday, he predicted dramatic political realignments ahead of 2027 and described the party as entering its “final lap.”
At the interview, Otieno described the ongoing wrangles between rival factions as inevitable following the death of Raila Odinga, arguing that the party’s structures had long revolved around a single centre of authority.
“The institutionalization of the structures of governance in ODM was not very well placed within Raila's lifetime,” he said. “I believe it was intentionally structured so that Raila would be the final decision maker.”
He added that ODM had never been ideologically unified, saying, “It is evident once more that ODM is not a party that had a unilateral ideology.”
Otieno characterized the current divisions as a clash between two camps, one favouring confrontation and street mobilization, and another advocating strategic engagement with the state.
The debate comes shortly after the two ODM factions, the Linda Ground faction led by ODM party leader Oburu Oginga alongside Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, and the Linda Mwananchi movement led by Nairobi Senator, Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP, Babu Owino, clashed mainly on President Ruto's pre-election coalition talks to earn him a second term tenure.
Oburu’s camp has openly supported structured negotiations with UDA, arguing that ODM should transition from perpetual opposition into a power-sharing position in government.
At a rally in Siaya, he insisted the party would pursue coalition arrangements that include power-sharing and development programmes. He also told dissenting members, (Sifuna, Babu and co) they were free to leave if uncomfortable with this direction.
Opposing this approach, the Linda Mwananchi faction, has rejected the idea of an alliance with UDA and instead launched grassroots tours in Busia, Kitengela and Kakamega, arguing that ODM should preserve its independence and consider fielding its own presidential candidate.
The factional split has at times spilled over into confrontations on the ground, with rallies disrupted, competing chants erupting and police involvement reported.
The rift raised questions about ODM’s identity and cohesion following the death of its long-time figurehead Raila Odinga, leaving the party without its traditional unifying voice.
Otieno warned that ODM party risked weakening itself through internal purges, citing the debate around Secretary General Edwin Sifuna.
“If you remove somebody like Edwin Sifuna, the intention that you're communicating is that we don't want you,” he said. “He will definitely shift somewhere else.”
The communicaion strategist suggested that ODM may be entering what he called “its final lap”.
“What is happening with the Linda ground team is what I call a lap of victory,” he said. “They’re already doing a lap and that is very premature.”
He argued that without broad public support, such confidence could backfire. “Without the people, they don't have the people with them,” he said.
Looking ahead to the 2027 elections, Otieno predicted a three-way dynamic, “There’s going to be the president, the one who will be running from the opposition, then the third one will be the voter apathy.”
In a striking suggestion, he floated the possibility of Sifuna running for president, backed by businessman Jimmy Wanjigi as deputy.
“If Sifuna runs for president and Wanjigi deputizes him, that’s a very dangerous ticket,” he said, describing them as “non legacy politicians” who could appeal to voters seeking economic reform.
He also warned of possible physical confrontation at the party’s NDC scheduled for March 27. “There’s going to be a physical altercation and to be very bloody,” he said. “That I can assure you.”
He suggested postponing or cancelling the convention altogether. “The best thing to do is this. NDC must either be called off completely or postponed,” he said.
Alternatively, he proposed that younger leaders break away. “Babu and Sifuna, let them move out and form their own party,” he said. “There’s no harm.”
He likened the generational tensions within ODM to family dynamics. “When you're grown, you leave your father's home to also build your home,” he said.
Otieno argued that the party had failed to nurture younger leaders, saying everybody in ODM wants to make serious decisions arguing that the youths are their enemy.
He maintained that without mentoring the next generation, “they’ll become anarchists.”
Reflecting on Kenya’s shifting political alliances, Otieno said that seemingly impossible coalitions had materialised before. “I have stopped believing that anything is too far fetched,” he said. “We’ve seen Stranger Things happen.”
He cited past political realignments as evidence that unexpected alliances could emerge again.
For Otieno, the core issue remains leadership transition urging ODM to resolve its internal divisions wait for the party to die.
