TIFA Poll: Broad-Based Government support falls to 30% as opposition rises to 56%

Support for the Broad-Based Government (BBG) between President William Ruto and the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga has declined sharply, according to a new TIFA survey.

The poll found that 56% of Kenyans oppose the arrangement, compared to 30% who support it, reflecting growing public unease over the coalition amid worsening economic conditions.

The survey, conducted between May 2 and May 11, 2026, found that 56% of respondents oppose the BBG, compared to 30% who support it. A further 5% said they had no opinion, while 8% were unaware of the arrangement.

TIFA noted that while support for the BBG had risen steadily during 2025, the latest findings indicate a reversal of that trend.

Support peaked at 44% in November 2025 but has since fallen to 30%, while opposition has increased from 48% to 56%.

"Among all Kenyans, nearly twice as many express opposition to the BBG as compared to those who say they support it (56% vs. 30%)," the report stated.

The survey suggests that the coalition continues to generate divisions within ODM following the death of Raila Odinga and amid disagreements over the alliance's future direction.

TIFA observed that debates over ODM leadership succession, implementation of the parties' cooperation agenda, and discussions about the 2027 election have contributed to uncertainty surrounding the arrangement.

Regional differences were also evident. While the survey did not provide BBG support figures by county, it highlighted significant variations in attitudes toward national issues across Kenya's nine survey zones, including Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western.

The findings come against a backdrop of widespread economic dissatisfaction. The Poll found that 64% of respondents said their personal or family economic situation had worsened since the 2022 General Election, while 74% believed Kenya was heading in the wrong direction.

According to the report, "the eventual status of the Broad Based Government remains uncertain, whether or not ODM can hold together."

The survey was based on face-to-face household interviews with 2,013 adults aged 18 and above across all 47 counties.

Counties sampled included Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, Kiambu, Nakuru, Uasin Gishu, Kakamega, Garissa, Turkana, Nyeri, Meru, Machakos, Bungoma, Homa Bay and others covering every region of the country.

TIFA highlighted that the sample was nationally representative and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 2.18 percentage points.

Interviews were conducted primarily in Swahili and English among respondents drawn from both urban and rural areas, providing what the research firm described as an accurate reflection of Kenya's adult population at the time of data collection.