A favourable export outlook is emerging for Kenya’s avocado industry, with new projections showing higher shipments in 2026 driven by strong demand abroad, better farming practices and stricter oversight on quality.
According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) through its Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), exports are expected to rise by about 7.4 per cent. The growth is tied to the return of sea freight, expansion into additional markets and a growing focus on high oil-content varieties that meet international preferences.
Output is also forecast to increase, with production projected to grow by 4.8 per cent to 727,000 tonnes in 2026. The rise is linked to improved yields and a steady increase in acreage under the crop.
“FAS Nairobi projects Kenya’s avocado production to expand by 4.8 per cent in 2026 to 727,000 tonnes, supported by expanded area and yield recovery in key production zones,” the agency said.
Kenya continues to lead the continent in avocado exports, with more than 60 per cent of shipments destined for Europe and the Middle East. Sea transport remains the main mode for bulk exports due to its lower cost compared to air freight.
Farmers are increasingly turning to avocado farming, pushing the cultivated area up by 5.6 per cent to an estimated 37,600 hectares. The shift from crops such as maize and tea reflects the higher returns associated with avocado exports.
“The outlook for avocado production in Kenya remains optimistic, bolstered by generally favourable weather and ongoing improvements in farm management practices,” the USDA said.
The sector has recorded strong growth in recent years. Production rose sharply from 632,953 tonnes in 2023 to 848,122 tonnes in 2024, supported by expansion into new growing zones and sustained demand in overseas markets.
The European Union remains the largest destination for Kenya’s avocados, followed by the Middle East and China. Sales to China have been increasing since Kenya secured access to that market in 2022.
Despite the positive trend, exports were disrupted in 2025 after authorities halted sea shipments to stop the export of immature fruit. The decision followed complaints from buyers over quality concerns.
The Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA) later reopened the 2025/2026 export window on April 2, 2026, after confirming that fruit maturity levels had improved across major producing regions.
In response to past challenges, regulators have introduced tighter controls. Exporters are now required to undergo packhouse inspections, submit lists of approved suppliers and meet traceability rules that link each consignment to its source and harvest period.
The use of open trucks and pickups for transporting avocados has also been banned. Farmers found harvesting immature produce risk losing their licences as enforcement is stepped up.
The changes come as key export markets, including China and the European Union, increase scrutiny on quality standards.
Avocados remain Kenya’s top fruit export, outperforming pineapples, mangoes, raspberries, passion fruits and lemons. Production is spread across about 30 counties, mainly within the central highlands and nearby areas.
Murang’a leads in output, followed by Meru, Nyamira, Kisii, Nakuru, Kiambu, Nyeri, Kirinyaga and Embu. The crop is also expanding into Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Trans Nzoia and parts of western Kenya, highlighting its growing role as a cash crop.
With rising demand, wider cultivation and tighter regulation, the sector is expected to sustain its growth path and continue playing a key role in Kenya’s export earnings.