Policy and Governance expert Alfred Omenya has warned that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is headed into one of the most uncertain chapters in its history, saying Raila Odinga’s death has opened a political vacuum the party is ill-prepared to manage.
Speaking during an interview on Radio Generation on Monday, November 17, 2025, Omenya said ODM’s structure was built around Raila’s personality and influence, leaving a fragile foundation now that he is gone.
“ODM, as all political parties is a vehicle to power, and now the person who was holding that particular vehicle is not there. So there’s a vacuum. There’s really a power vacuum, whether we like it or not,” he said.
According to Omenya, the battle to fill that vacuum has already begun, and it will not be gentle. “Power is never given to you in the first instance; you actually grab power,” he said, warning that the scramble is likely to be messy and deeply divisive.
One of the figures now in the spotlight is Senator Oburu Oginga, whom Omenya described as a temporary placeholder.
“Oburu is basically a caretaker… he’s not one of the most gifted politicians… he has inherited his father’s position in Bondo,” he said.
"Omenya claims that because Oburu is a "safe pair of hands in terms of transition, and a threat to nobody," this has emboldened Raila’s daughter, Winnie Odinga, to assert herself more boldly.
“She clearly wants to grab the mantle,” he said.
He clarified that inheriting Raila’s legacy does not automatically translate to inheriting the ODM crown. “By inheriting the Raila legacy, I do not mean the ODM leadership,” he stated.
He also warned that external forces, including President William Ruto’s renewed focus on former ODM regions, could accelerate the party’s weakening.
“The President is already there doing his fishing, he remembered suddenly that he was an ODM founder member,” he noted.
Omenya pointed to rising unease among grassroots leaders who previously felt sidelined by Raila’s inner circle. Many, he said, now feel free to chart their own paths. As a result, defections and realignments appear imminent.
“ODM cannot hold. That’s my position,” he declared, predicting that the party will “shrink quite considerably,” even if it survives in name.
With no clear successor, growing internal suspicion, and a shifting political environment, Omenya believes ODM is on the verge of a major reconfiguration,one that may redefine opposition politics in Kenya for years to come.
