Thirty Three Energy CEO Mohamud Salat has warned that escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt up to 20 per cent of global oil supply, triggering a sharp spike in prices and raising fears of a global energy security crisis.
Speaking on Radio Generation on Monday, he said the potential disruption equivalent to about 20 million barrels per day out of the world’s 100 million barrel daily demand far outweighs previous shocks, including the Russia-Ukraine war and the 1979 oil crisis.
“All those countries have oil infrastructure mostly along the Persian Gulf, and for them to export, they have to go through the Strait of Hormuz,” Salat explained, noting that any blockage would force the world to urgently seek alternative supply routes.
He added that even the loss of 3 million barrels during the Russia-Ukraine conflict significantly impacted global prices, warning that “you’re talking about 20 million barrels… that’s a significant jump.”
Salat observed that markets have already reacted, with oil prices rising sharply from the $60–$70 range to about $160 per barrel, largely driven by speculative or “paper trading” before actual supply disruptions fully materialise.
“Paper comes fast… but the physical catches up,” he said, underscoring how anticipation alone can drive global price surges.
He, however, noted that mitigation efforts are underway. Saudi Arabia has developed pipelines linking the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, while the United Arab Emirates and Iraq have established alternative export routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. These measures could recover roughly half of the disrupted supply.
“We might have saved probably 10 out of the 20 million,” he said, though warning that the remaining deficit would still be severe.
Bringing the impact closer home, Salat said Kenya remains highly exposed due to its reliance on Gulf imports under government-to-government fuel deals.
“About 80 per cent of our oil requirement comes from this region,” he noted, adding that even where supply is secured, “it comes with a huge price.”
He cautioned that while alternative routes may cushion the shock, the scale of potential disruption means consumers should brace for sustained high fuel costs as global markets adjust.