A new TIFA Research survey reveals that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has overtaken other parties to become the most supported political party in Kenya. The survey shows a shift in political preferences as undecided voters grow, highlighting a fluid political landscape ahead of the 2027 elections.
According to the report released on Tuesday, December 23, ODM leads with 20 percent of Kenyans backing it, while the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) follows with 16 percent. Jubilee Party, associated with retired President Uhuru Kenyatta, has gained 11 percent support, DCP under Rigathi Gachagua stands at 6 percent, and Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper Patriotic Front has 4 percent.
“ODM is the most popular political party, followed by UDA. Support for the two dominant parties, ODM and UDA, has declined significantly from 2022 levels, while the proportion of Kenyans who are undecided or have no party preference has grown to become the largest segment of the electorate. Therefore, no party currently commands a decisive or stable base, and voter loyalty is fluid,” TIFA stated.
The survey details show ODM’s support rising from 13 percent in September to 20 percent in November, while UDA’s popularity has remained steady at 16 percent. Jubilee’s backing grew from 3 percent to 11 percent, but DCP saw a drop from 9 percent to 6 percent.
On the issue of ODM’s role in the broad-based government, 50 percent of respondents expect the party to leave the government and join the opposition, 30 percent think it will stay, and 20 percent remain undecided.
The research covered all 47 counties from November 10 to November 17, with 2,053 randomly selected Kenyan adults aged 18 years and above participating.
TIFA’s findings come shortly after the organisation reported a doubling of support for the broad-based government over six months, from 22 percent in May to 44 percent in November. Opposition to the government has declined to 48 percent, with 8 percent of Kenyans expressing no opinion.
“TIFA’s last three surveys reveal that support for the BBG has doubled (from 22% in May to 44% in November), though the ‘oppose’ figure for August (64%) was the highest, most likely as a result of the violent suppression of protests in June and July, the memories of which (among most Kenyans, at least) may be fading, with the ‘oppose’ figure (48%) now at its lowest level across all three surveys,” the report stated.
