Kenya set for hotter, drier months despite El Niño outlook

Kenya is headed into a stretch of mostly dry and warmer conditions over the next three months, with the main rains linked to El Niño expected much later in the year, according to the latest outlook from the national weather office.

Acting Director of Meteorological Services Edward Muriuki said there is an 80 to 82 per cent chance that El Niño conditions will be present during June, July and August. Even so, he noted that most parts of the country will remain dry during this period, while western Kenya is expected to receive reduced rainfall.

He said the rainfall boost often associated with El Niño will not be immediate and is more likely to be felt in the October-November-December season.

Muriuki added that weather patterns in Kenya are shaped by more than one system and that another major ocean condition is also being tracked closely.

“KMD is also closely monitoring the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) signal, which modulates the effect of El Niño in Kenya,” he said.

The Indian Ocean Dipole refers to temperature differences between the western Indian Ocean near East Africa and the eastern parts of the ocean.

A positive phase occurs when waters near Kenya are warmer than usual, a pattern linked to heavier rainfall later in the year. A negative phase tends to reduce rainfall across the country.

At the moment, the IOD is neutral, and forecasts suggest it may remain so through June 2026, although a positive phase could develop later in the year.

“The combined effects of El Niño and a positive IOD significantly influence rainfall patterns over Kenya, potentially leading to enhanced rainfall during the October November-December season. Updates on El Nino and IOD conditions will continue to be provided at monthly timescales or when required,” Muriuki said.

The June-July-August forecast shows that several regions, including the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley and north-western Kenya, are likely to experience near-normal to below-normal rainfall.

In contrast, the south-eastern lowlands and north-eastern parts of the country are expected to remain mostly sunny and dry.

Temperatures are also projected to stay above average across most regions, raising concerns for farmers and pastoralists as moisture levels continue to drop toward the end of the long rains season.