The Ministry of Health has issued a nationwide warning as the March–May long rains approach, cautioning that malaria and cholera outbreaks may rise in the coming months.
The alert follows forecasts of heavy rainfall in several counties, which could create conditions that promote the spread of waterborne and mosquito-borne diseases.
Health officials, speaking at the release of the seasonal forecast on Wednesday, said that regions in central and western Kenya are particularly vulnerable to cholera, typhoid, malaria, and respiratory illnesses.
“Based on the mitigation measures outlined in our advisories, we will focus on health system preparedness,” the officials said in a statement. “This includes stockpiling vaccines, water and sanitation and nutrition commodities, vector control supplies and establishing isolation centres.”
The ministry added that preventive measures will also cover proper waste disposal, the distribution of mosquito nets and antimalarial drugs, provision of testing kits, and enhanced surveillance to detect outbreaks early.
Edward Muriuki, Acting Director of Meteorological Services, said heavy rains are expected in about 32 counties.
These include Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Nandi, Kericho, Bomet, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Baringo, and Narok, which are likely to receive near to above-average rainfall between March and May.
Rainfall in these areas is forecast to begin in February and continue through June.
In Turkana and Samburu, rains are expected to start from late March to early April, also reaching near to above-average levels.
The highlands east of the Rift Valley; including Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, and Nairobi, are likely to experience favorable rainfall from the second and third week of March, ending in the third to fourth week of May.
“Rainfall is likely to be near average to above average, and occasional heavy rainfall events are expected in several parts of the stated regions,” Muriuki said.
“These events may be episodic, but they are important for water recharge.” He explained that while March–May marks the country’s main rainy season, the rainfall will not be evenly distributed.
Northern counties including Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo are forecast to receive near-average to below-average rainfall from late March to early April.
“Rainfall is likely to be near average to below average, and occasional heavy rainfall events may occur in a few areas,” Muriuki said. “However, the amounts may not be sufficient to fully address existing moisture deficits.”
Southeastern lowlands, covering Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, and Taita Taveta, along with parts of Tana River, are also expected to receive below-average rainfall.
The Coast, including Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, Kwale, and coastal Tana River, is predicted to experience the weakest rainfall season, starting between early and mid-April, with occasional heavy showers continuing into June.
Muriuki cautioned that short-term weather patterns, such as tropical cyclones and the Madden–Julian Oscillation, could alter rainfall outcomes. “Intraseasonal drivers such as tropical cyclones and the Madden–Julian Oscillation are only predictable at shorter lead times and can significantly influence the seasonal outcome,” he said. County- and ward-level forecasts will be released next week to assist local planning and preparedness ahead of the long rains.
