Kenya risks losing 2,900 jobs as DRC Ebola outbreak hits regional trade, UN warns

Kenya is staring at the possibility of losing thousands of jobs as the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) continues to disrupt trade, transport and business activity across East and Central Africa, a new United Nations report has warned.

The assessment by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) shows that while Kenya has not recorded any Ebola infections, the country is already feeling the effects of the outbreak through reduced commercial activity, delays in the movement of goods and growing uncertainty among investors.

According to the report, Kenya could lose about 2,900 jobs if the disease remains largely contained within the DRC and Uganda but continues to trigger restrictions that affect trade and transport across the region.

The outbreak had, by late June, claimed 291 lives in the DRC and infected 1,118 people. Uganda had reported 62 confirmed infections and two deaths.

“Ebola does not stop at the hospital gate,” said Ahunna Eziakonwa, UN assistant secretary general and UNDP regional director for Africa. “It affects livelihoods, education, food security, trade, public finances and trust. If we treat this Ebola outbreak solely as a health challenge, we risk missing the much larger development emergency unfolding around it.”

The report, titled Rapid Socioeconomic Assessment of Ebola Outbreak in the DRC, notes that Kenya’s biggest exposure lies in the economic consequences of the crisis rather than the disease itself.

It explains that enhanced screening at borders, travel restrictions and quarantine measures have slowed the movement of people and cargo across several countries. The resulting delays have raised transport expenses and increased the cost of doing business, particularly for firms that depend on regional trade networks.

The study estimates that Africa could lose about US$2.37 billion in economic output and roughly 90,000 formal jobs even if the outbreak remains mostly confined to the DRC and Uganda. The losses are expected to stem from interruptions to trade, weaker consumer confidence and precautionary measures adopted by governments and businesses.

Among the countries projected to record the highest employment losses, Angola is expected to be the hardest hit with about 16,600 jobs at risk. Kenya follows with an estimated 2,900 jobs, while South Sudan could lose around 1,480 positions.

“The economic damage extends well beyond those infected with the disease, disproportionately harming the most vulnerable populations, who lack the financial buffers to weather the disruption,” the UNDP said.

The agency said the economic strain would remain substantial even under a scenario where the outbreak is successfully brought under control in the affected countries.

“Even under a baseline scenario where the virus is successfully contained in the DRC and Uganda, the economic damage remains severe, with the DRC projected to record real GDP losses exceeding US$1 billion and the loss of 55,000 jobs,” the UNDP said.

The findings underscore how disease outbreaks can trigger far-reaching economic challenges, with countries that have not reported infections still facing losses linked to disrupted trade, investment and business confidence.