The United Nations has warned that disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could continue to affect global trade, food supplies and vulnerable economies long after oil flows begin recovering, with dozens of countries facing heightened risks from rising fuel and food costs.
In a new assessment, the UN Trade and Development agency (UNCTAD) said uncertainty surrounding one of the world's busiest energy transit routes is threatening to push up transport and agricultural costs, exposing 61 vulnerable economies to simultaneous shocks in oil and cereal imports.
The warning comes as commercial shipping through the strategic waterway struggles to return to normal following tensions linked to the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran.
Although shipping activity through the strait picked up in mid-June after a ceasefire, recent exchanges between Washington and Tehran have slowed the pace of recovery, raising fresh concerns about the resilience of global supply chains.
According to UNCTAD, oil shipments are expected to gradually recover, but the wider economic effects are likely to last much longer.
The agency said freight agreements, supply chains and food systems will take more time to stabilise, warning that prolonged increases in food prices could worsen hunger and malnutrition in poorer nations.
"Higher energy prices fuel higher transport costs, agricultural costs and inflation, which increases food prices long after the initial shock," UNCTAD said.
The report identified smaller and import-dependent economies as some of the most vulnerable to the fallout from shipping disruptions.
Among those facing the greatest risk are small island states such as Cabo Verde and Micronesia, which rely heavily on imported fuel and food supplies.
UNCTAD described the situation as a "dual exposure", noting that countries dependent on both oil and cereal imports are especially vulnerable to sudden price increases.
The agency estimates that 61 vulnerable economies are exposed to both oil and cereal import shocks, while many developing countries have limited resources to cushion households and businesses from rising costs.
It warned that nations already grappling with debt pressures, declining remittances and reduced international aid could face even greater economic challenges if disruptions persist.
Food security remains one of the biggest concerns, according to the report, which cautioned that even brief periods of unaffordable food prices can have serious consequences for children.
"As real food prices increase by five per cent, the risk of child wasting increases by 15 per cent for poor children and 26 per cent for children of rural, landless poor households," it said.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres called on all parties to avoid actions that could worsen instability and prolong economic disruptions.
"These shocks will be felt for many months, with developing countries bearing the heaviest impacts. I call on all parties to honour the ceasefire and redouble efforts," he said.
The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, is regarded as one of the world's most critical energy transit routes, linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.
Roughly 20 million barrels of oil move through the waterway every day, accounting for about a quarter of global seaborne oil trade. Any disruption along the route has the potential to affect energy markets, shipping costs and supply chains across the world.
Further analysis cited in the report indicates that the strait is also vital for natural gas exports and broader maritime trade, with experts warning that extended instability could continue disrupting freight markets even after oil shipments return to normal levels.