A new United Nations assessment has warned that climate change is set to place growing pressure on transport systems across Europe, Central Asia and North America, with rising temperatures, flooding and sea level rise expected to cause more frequent disruptions to roads, railways, ports and airports in the coming decades.
The report, released on Wednesday by the UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), calls on governments and transport operators to strengthen climate adaptation efforts to protect critical infrastructure and limit economic losses linked to extreme weather events.
Published under the title Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Inland Transport: Towards Climate Resilient Transport Systems, the study projects that roads, railways, waterways, ports and airports will face increasing climate-related threats between 2051 and 2080 unless stronger adaptation measures are put in place.
The warning comes at a time when several countries in western Europe are already experiencing transport challenges linked to extreme heat. Transport operators in Belgium, Denmark, France and the United Kingdom have reported disruptions caused by softened road surfaces, warped railway tracks, overheating signalling equipment, faulty traffic lights, air conditioning breakdowns and restrictions on river transport.
A UNECE spokesperson said the current weather conditions were already reflecting the concerns raised in the report.
"The current extreme heat episode in western Europe has highlighted climate risks and the consequences on transport."
According to the assessment, transport infrastructure could face between 10 and 50 additional days each year with temperatures above 25 degrees Celsius. In some regions, that number could rise to as many as 200 days annually.
The report says prolonged periods of heat increase the risk of road damage, bridge expansion, railway track deformation and wildfires that could affect major transport routes.
Beyond rising temperatures, the study identifies flooding, sea level rise, reduced snow and ice cover, and thawing permafrost as some of the biggest threats likely to affect transport infrastructure in the years ahead.
It estimates that between 71 and 89 percent of ports around the world could be exposed to extreme marine storms by 2100. The report also warns that about five million people in Europe, together with the transport infrastructure serving them, could face coastal flooding almost every year by the end of the century.
UNECE Executive Secretary Tatiana Molcean said the cost of failing to prepare for these risks would be substantial.
"Transport systems are vital for the smooth functioning of our societies and economies, but disruptions can have dramatic consequences on communities and come at huge financial cost."
The report highlights the economic impact of climate-related disasters, pointing to the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which caused an estimated Sh29.9 trillion in damages. Annual losses affecting ports were estimated at about Sh967.5 billion, while wider risks to global shipping, trade, supply chains and economic activity ranged between Sh10.4 trillion and Sh15.7 trillion.
The assessment also projects increased rainfall in several regions, including the western coast of Norway, the Alps, the Balkans, northern Türkiye, parts of Central Asia, coastal British Columbia and the eastern United States.
Such changes are expected to raise the likelihood of landslides, drainage system failures and damage to transport infrastructure caused by flooding and washouts.
"Because extreme weather events are no longer a future risk but a reality today, adapting transport infrastructure is no longer optional but essential," Molcean said, describing climate adaptation as an urgent imperative for protecting transport systems and economies.
The report urges governments and private sector operators to place greater focus on resilience by strengthening policies, carrying out regular climate risk assessments and investing in measures that can help transport networks withstand harsher weather conditions.
It also highlights adaptation projects already underway in France, Germany and Portugal as examples of efforts aimed at making transport infrastructure more resilient in the face of increasingly extreme weather.